The Herd is an odd beast, one that is grounded and unprovocative until it isn't. Perhaps the title tips the wink, but as a maths and stats man, the fundamental arguments that run through The Herd, and its exploration of Sweden's approach to the COVID pandemic is one I had myself just over two years ago. We apply a cost-benefit analysis to health decisions all the time, particularly in countries with socialised healthcare - even if we pretend not to. What was it about COVID 19 that was different, why was a disease with what looked like such a low mortality rate (particularly in the young) the trigger for massive lockdowns. The Herd is interesting because it looks particularly at the Swedish case, identifies a few stubborn key players, and teases it all out in a true crime way waiting for the shoe to drop. Which it never really does. The eventual thesis of the book is that Sweden did the right thing. I think to get to that conclusion it ignores a few salient points about risk management and the global response, but makes a solid number of good points.

This is a Swedish story which has to explain in translation why what people think of as social democratic and progressive Sweden isn't quite the Sweden on 2020. It also has to explain how much power government departments have under the Swedish constitution (its against the law for ministers to meddle in the operation of their own departments for example). Couple that with a few historical missteps (a vaccination crisis in the 90's), and an absolutist zeal that the damage done to the young is greater than the effect of the death toll in the old, and the perfect scenario is created. Sweden followed the science, but it also followed the social science, and broadly - a weak and rather anonymous Prime Minister was happy to let the experts fight their corner. And as the numbers break down, they weren't particularly wrong - the UK - who were initially fellow travellers on Herd Immunity - have had a much worse death toll and a much greater economic impact.

However I had two problems with The Herd: which probably stem from being inside the Swedish bubble. The book never really lets us see the dynamic internal media position on COVID. There is a lot of talk about the general public confidence in the health office, and some talk of dissenting op eds - but no sense on whether this was seen as pressure on the government or not. Equally it does not really saw how the "optional" restrictions worked. There is no talk of numbers of people choosing not to socialise, how voluntary restrictions worked compared to compulsory ones (it starts to talk more and more about freedom in its back half once confident in snaring its oppositional readers). Because the biggest flaw is a lack of engagement in the psychology of the lockdown mentality. Right or wrong, it is a mentality which existed in private companies before it existed in some governments, the responsibility workplaces had to their staff and customers. The responsibility we had to teachers and other people on the frontline. It may well be that prolonged lockdowns did nothing to stop the eventual death-toll, but the individual unable to risk assess for themselves, or their family properly were also people who might have to tell bar staff to keep working. And the same for governments, who wanted to be responsible for huge death tolls - or at least to try to make the argument that doing nothing might be a proactive step? The Herd also does not talk about variants, and how unchecked spread allows for mutation, and this seems a flaw particularly when you get to the second wave (and before we hit Omnicron).

Nevertheless The Herd is a well researched book without a particularly didactic point of view. And its question - interesting when you consider China's continued chase after Covid Zero - is if we can really say lockdowns worked (outside of New Zealand...), and if not, will they be repeated in future. The Herd has an interesting point of view on that - though I fear its central learning is one which will be the same as everywhere else - once committed to a course it is very hard to change.

Excellent journalism….. so well researched, It is well written and packed with interesting detail. I found it fascinating… I also found it difficult to put the book down once I’d started reading.

This reads like a history book, for me, except that the events happened in the not so distant past! This made it utterly captivating. We can all recount our own experiences of the pandemic, but reading this account of how it was experienced by Sweden's leading politicians / epidemiologist etc puts a whole new slant on it that is a real eye opener.

The author is a journalist, and with detailed background information relating to the main players he has clearly done his homework.

Sweden's approach to the pandemic is truly fascinating and it is a pleasure to be able to read about it in this well written portrayal.

My thanks to Netgalley, author and publisher for the opportunity to review this book in exchange for an advance copy.