Invisible China

How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise

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Pub Date 12 Oct 2020 | Archive Date 15 Sep 2020

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Description

China's incredible growth has a darker side--it has relied heavily on unskilled labor and the result is not sustainable. This book speaks to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe.

As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern.

China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere.

In Invisible China, Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike.

China's incredible growth has a darker side--it has relied heavily on unskilled labor and the result is not sustainable. This book speaks to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential...


Advance Praise

"Invisible China is an important, clearly argued, and original work. It presents a side of China that is all too evident to hundreds of millions of people living there, but that often escapes notice internationally. Anyone interested in China's economic and political future, and its impact on the world, will want to read this book."—James Fallows, author of Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China

“No one knows rural China better than Scott Rozelle. In this brilliant, original, thought-provoking, and important study, Rozelle and Natalie Hell not only make China’s potential human capital crisis visible, but provide actionable solutions based on rigorous research.”—Hongbin Li, James Liang Director of the China Program, Stanford University 


“Professor Rozelle is a renowned economist specializing in early childhood education and rural development, and his book on rural China is a culmination of over twenty years of research on rural China, which has generated intense interest among policymakers and philanthropists. He convincingly argues that intervention into early childhood education is the most effective way of reducing the inequality that is a problem not only in rural China but in many parts of the world.”—James Liang, chairman and cofounder of Ctrip

"Invisible China is an important, clearly argued, and original work. It presents a side of China that is all too evident to hundreds of millions of people living there, but that often escapes notice...


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ISBN 9780226739526
PRICE US$27.50 (USD)
PAGES 248

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Featured Reviews

Invisible China provides a stunning overview of economic, health and education policies in rural China. China may have one of the largest economies in the world, but it has one of the lowest levels of education. If low-skill work in construction and manufacturing slows or is replaced by automation technology, China’s emerging workforce won’t have the ability to adapt to different work or industries.

As part of the Rural Education Action Program (REAP), public health researchers, economists and education specialists from universities in both the US and China mass collected data from across China. It’s an extraordinary effort in a country where credible statistics can be difficult to come by, especially in the “poor, rural interior.” Overall, their rigorous research shows that the education and well being of rural Chinese children has not kept pace with the country’s swift development and rising wages. In fact, it’s unbelievably bad.

Many workers don’t know how to learn, even if they are given opportunities for advancement by their current employers. If China loses their competitive edge and cannot advance into high-value-added industries, the country will become stuck at this level – a ‘middle income trap.’


This trap could cause problems with investment rates, social stability and further divert funding away from education and towards policing and welfare support.
Since rural families have historically been permitted to have more children than those in the cities, China now faces the alarming possibility that the vast majority of their future workforce is malnourished, socially neglected and under educated. Although China has an elite class of workers, such as business people, engineers and programmers, they are not strong enough to support the rest of the country with universal basic income. Alongside higher wages for low skilled workers, China is now leading the world in robotics technology and is the main global customer of the robotics which are replacing those low skilled workers.

Although the Chinese government has recently made moves to remedy this issue through reducing or abolishing school fees, improving access to textbooks and expanding vocational schools, there was no early investment in human capital or a well laid plan to transition the country from a manufacturing to an innovation-based economy. Unfortunately many of these problems started during the Cultural Revolution and were neglected by Deng Xiaoping. He is rightly credited with the economic miracle, but unfortunately mass education was not given priority. Now, the current leadership must implement policies that may not show positive results for a generation. It’s terribly difficult to implement policies that take so long for results. It is even more difficult if those policies must be implemented by rural leadership who feel that the benefits of those policies will only go to urban areas. According to the authors, upgrading the education level of the entire labour force would take 45 years.

Each chapter provides comparative research to other countries which have fallen into or avoided the middle income trap. Thankfully, they include many simple graphs and charts to explain their economic theories. Although they recognise the difficulty in comparing China to a much smaller country, such as Ireland, it’s incredibly useful for understanding what steps could be taken now to improve the situation of China’s children. Outlining how Mexico’s growth stalled and resulted in widespread criminal activity and economic stagnation reveals how important it is to take this problem seriously. China’s rural and migrant workers are ‘invisible,’ but their welfare could impact the country’s elite and global economic stability. The authors also explain why vocational schools in Germany have been so incredibly successful, while those in China have been, for the most part, an expensive disaster. They certainly don’t discount differences in economic history or local culture, but this comparative research does show how China could reshape their policies to mimic the success of South Korea and avoid the social upheaval of Mexico.

I came to this book with some background knowledge. I conducted research at a Shanghai university on the hukou system, social capital, and schools for internal migrant children. I also volunteered at migrant schools in Shanghai. The hukou system is a household registration system which divides Chinese citizens into agricultural and non-agricultural residency status. However, the problems and solutions in this book require no background knowledge in China or economics. If anything, the summaries of their arguments in each closing section are a bit too long. That may be due to their fears that even those living in China might not be able to recognise this looming problem in a population that remains invisible and separate to the elite of the mega cities.

The hukou categories shape where the individual and their family can live, work, or study and what benefits or services they can receive. More than 70% of China’s children have rural status. Many internal migrant parents face a difficult choice of staying in their rural hometowns in poverty, leaving their children behind in the care of others, or bringing their children to cities where they will be unable to access proper health and education services. Even parents who are able to keep their children in local schools might find that corruption and incompetence leaves their children far behind urban children.

The human suffering outlined in these chapters was almost impossible to read without setting the book down for a moment. Many of the recommended actions and policies are surely within the ability of the Chinese government, but they describe how education in China is fairly decentralised. Although this situation was only briefly described, higher levels of government could take harsh action against those unscrupulous individuals in rural areas who set up Potemkin schools. These “schools” take education funding meant for China’s poorest students but have no teachers or students. Each chapter includes a very human story, such as descriptions of job fairs, adult workers struggling without general education skills, young students unable to see the blackboard because their caretakers think glasses will ruin their eyes, children too weak to play because of anaemia and worms, young girls blocked by their families from taking parasite-killing medication in case it harms their fertility, young men looking into bride kidnapping as a source of income and babies failing intelligence tests before they are anywhere near a school. It is a moving and sobering read, but not without hope. Every section describes crushing poverty, ignorance and corruption, but the authors provide just as many solutions.


There was only one section that I wish the authors had expanded on. In describing how the hukou system prevents rural children from attending urban schools and hospitals, the solution was to abolish the system and to implement policies similar to Taiwan. Why the hukou system is still in use or what justification the government provides for it was not presented and this leaves the reader wondering how lifting these restrictions would work in practice. Would urban schools and hospitals maintain their quality if class sizes and hospital waiting times skyrocketed? Unfortunately this policy recommendation was a little thin compared to more pragmatic steps of providing parenting classes and opticians. That said, I’m sure other texts have studied the hukou system in full and overall this is an important book that provides a clear call to action.

The first challenge this book faces is convincing the reader and government authorities that China’s children are indeed suffering terribly. This is hard to imagine for those who associate Chinese cities with top international education rankings and tiger mothers. For those travelling by plane or high speed train across China’s rural areas, it’s difficult to see that many of China’s children are suffering from health problems (especially invisible health problems), social isolation and a lack of education. Despite the best efforts of the government to provide funding, many families face an issue with the opportunity cost of staying in school. Many families know that their children are not receiving a good education in the their local schools and could make a small fortune by dropping out of school to work in construction, even if it means lying about their age. China has one of the highest male-female sex imbalances in the world due to sex-selective abortions. If there is an economic downturn, many young men who are unable to find work or partners may turn to gang activity and organised crime. The authors take pains here to explain that employment also provides self-respect and a sense of connection to the community. The second challenge for this book is that it may have trouble distinguishing itself from the numerous other books out there arguing that China isn’t as great as everyone thinks. This would be a shame, as Invisible China is based on careful research and makes persuasive policy arguments for improving the situation of Chinese children and avoiding the middle income trap.

This book was provided by the publisher for review.

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Very interesting read. China is not a popular place at the moment. Which made reading this book all the more interesting. It really opened my eyes to a lot of issues. Definitely worth a read

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Much has been written about the rise of China, and especially about the rise of China's cities. I should know - I spent a few months in Shanghai in the summer of 2015 as an intern working abroad. The amount of growth in building and infrastructure was breathtaking; it truly felt like every second I spent on Shanghai's streets was another step forward in China's modernization. Like most others with firsthand experience in China, I knew little about the problems facing China's rural population before reading this book. Invisible China provides exactly that - an analysis of where the rural Chinese have fallen behind to their urban counterparts and what can be done about it. The authors' firsthand knowledge of these areas and the very striking and useful charts gave me new perspective of what one might expect in China's urban-rural divide. My one complaint would be for greater perspective on the government side, where one would expect many of the necessary reforms to be implemented. However, such information could easily be unreliable or kept secret from the authors, so this criticism might be unfair. Nevertheless, this book contains a lot of good information that has informed my insight and is helpful as I continue to observe China from afar. For those interested in learning more about rural China, I wholeheartedly recommend this book.

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